Insights

STUART THEOBALD: Kenya and Morocco show what is possible

Travel is the antidote to national neuroses. The opportunity to see how other countries get things done always stretches the Overton window — the range of policies you consider possible.

In the past three weeks I’ve been in SA, Kenya and Morocco, and the latter two made me feel that SA simply lacks ambition.

Morocco, through structural reforms, is set to grow its economy by more than 3% in each of the next five years. The north African country is simultaneously reducing its budget deficit while boosting cash transfers to vulnerable households. It’s a construction site, with a major energy and water programme under way. There is also extensive improvement of local village and tourist-related infrastructure as it gears up to host the African Cup of Nations next year and the Fifa World Cup in 2030 (with Spain and Portugal).

The country is aggressively using its tax system to discourage fossil fuel use while investing heavily in renewable energy, all aimed at achieving net zero by 2050. Monetary policy there is solid, and inflation and interest rates are low.

Morocco is rapidly industrialising, with the second of two five-year “industrial acceleration plans” concluding next year. Its vehicle industry produced 535,825 cars and commercial vehicles in 2023 compared with 633,337 in SA. Several factories in its thriving aviation industry produce aircraft parts. It has targeted textiles, pharmaceuticals and food processing, as well as a fast-growing electronics industry.

Plans are focused on stimulating the private sector, attracting foreign investors and incorporating small businesses into major industrial supply chains. Development is strongly export-focused, which has become a major driver of economic growth.

Kenya’s economy grew more than 5% last year and is forecast to remain above 5% over the next five years. It has become increasingly competitive, inclusive and market-driven, underpinned by the government’s anticorruption framework. Public finances have been improving with the government reporting primary budget surpluses (though this could change).

Exports have recently changed direction, particularly in services, driven by Kenya’s emerging information technology (IT) sector. The government is implementing a five-year plan focused on improving value addition, competitiveness and access to foreign markets for Kenya’s exports.

While I was there, the streets were simmering after nationwide protests in which dozens of people were killed allegedly by the police. The protests were over government largesse and proposed tax hikes. President William Ruto, who surprised many by sweeping to power in 2022 with promises to improve the lot of small businesses in the informal economy, was quick to respond. After an initial hesitation, he shelved the tax increases and summarily fired much of his cabinet. Swift justice has been promised for those responsible for the deaths of protesters, starting with the resignation of the police chief.

Many Kenyans to whom I spoke were philosophical — they view  the government’s responsiveness and the extent of political engagement by young Kenyans as positive.

There are clear risks ahead, though. Kenya’s debt levels are unsustainable, racked up by the previous government, and tax increases to improve the government’s take of 15% of GDP are necessary (SA is at 26.8% of GDP). Ruto has announced sharp cuts to government spending as an alternative to tax increases. But, on the whole, there is a vibrancy regarding the country’s economic outlook, given its strong commitment to improving competitiveness.

Back in SA, I picked up a report released last week by the World Bank titled “Unlocking SA’s potential: leveraging trade for inclusive growth and resilience”. The report makes a strong case for trade policy reforms that could boost trade to support economic growth. It notes that SA’s exports have underperformed its peers over the past two decades, which was tangibly evident in Morocco and Kenya.

The World Bank report is an implicit critique of SA’s industrial policy, particularly under former trade, industry & competition minister Ebrahim Patel. The focus has had too strong a flavour of import substitution industrialisation, rather than the development of sectors that can be globally competitive and boost exports.

It notes the loss of competitiveness because of SA’s logistics crisis, the dreadful performance of port and rail infrastructure, and inefficiencies at land border crossings. It also bemoans the impact of state capture, the collapse of state-owned enterprises’ performance and rising policy and regulatory uncertainty.

Kenya and Morocco show how international trade drives prosperity, creates higher-paying jobs and provides consumers with better and cheaper products. SA’s economy has depended heavily on household and government consumption, but a greater outward orientation, tapping into global demand for goods in which SA can build competitive advantages, would improve economic resilience.

The African Continental Free Trade Area is an obvious opportunity SA could tap.

The examples from the rest of the continent show what is possible. It takes planning, clean governance and credible commitment to implement reforms. SA has recently got several things right: a stable electricity supply and tackling the logistics crisis. Also, Operation Vulindlela has achieved breakthroughs in policy implementation and recovery of the government’s credibility in its ability to deliver.

But there is so much further to go. Trade and industrial policy, which has been a confused mess for more than a decade, is one area ripe for major reform. Our continental peers show what is possible.